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Successful Development and Deployment of a Global ROP Optimization Machine Learning Model
OTC-31680-MS: Timothy S. Robinson, Dalila Gomes, Exebenus, Peter Batruny, Meor M. Hakeem Meor Hashim, M. Hazwan Yusoff, M. Faris Arriffin, and Azlan Mohamad, PETRONAS Carigali Sdn Bhd
Abstract: Drilling rate of penetration (ROP) is a major contributor to drilling costs. ROP is influenced by many different controllable and uncontrollable factors that are difficult to distinguish with the naked eye. Thus, machine learning (ML) models such as neural networks (NN) have gained momentum in the drilling industry. Existing models were either field-based or tool-based, which impacted the accuracy outside of the trained field. This work aims to develop one generally applicable global ROP model, reducing the effort needed to re-develop models for every application.
A drilling dataset was gathered from exploration and development wells in both onshore and offshore operations from a variety of fields and regions. The wells were curated to have different water depths, down hole drive such as Rotary Steerable System (RSS), PDM, Standard Rotary, bit types (Mill Tooth, TCI, PDC) and inclinations (vertical or deviated). A deep neural network was used for modelling the relationship between ROP and inputs taken from real-time surface data, such as Torque, Weight-on-Bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), flow and pressure measurements. The performance of the ROP model was analyzed using historical data via summary statistics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error, as well as graphical results such as residuals distributions, cumulative distribution functions of errors, and plots of ROP vs depth for independent holdout testing wells not included in the model fitting process. Analysis was done both in aggregate, and for each specific well.
The ROP model was demonstrated to generalize effectively in all cases, with only minor increases in error metrics for the holdout test wells, where the Mean Absolute Percentage Error averaged across wells was ~20%, compared to 17.5% averaged across training wells. Furthermore, residuals distributions were centered close to zero, indicating low systematic error. This work proves the case for a “global” ROP prediction model applicable “out-of-the-box” to a broad set of drilling operations.
A global ROP model has the potential to eliminate learning curves, reducing time and costs associated with having to develop a new model for every field. Furthermore, a model that effectively captures the relationships between parameters controllable by drillers and ROP can be used for automatically identifying drilling parameters that improve ROP. Preliminary field-testing of the ROP optimization system yielded positive results, with many examples of increased ROP realized after following drilling parameter recommendations provided by the software.